public:sotm:updown

Date	market	possibly because
2021-05-18	down	in anticipation of FOMC minutes on 2021-05-19.
2021-05-20	up	initial claims data released at 8:30 am. The data is for 5/15, expected = 460k, actual = 444k, prior = 478k.

market = sp500.

bps = day-over-day relative change of closing prices in bps. That is (P2/P1 * 100 * 100) rounded to the nearest integer.

Date	market	bps	possibly because
2021-05-24	up	106
2021-06-04	up	88
2021-06-16	down	-54	FOMC Rate Decision at 2 PM. Actual = 0.125%, expected = 0.125%, prior = 0.125%

Date	Day	market	notes
2021-07-08	Thu	previous close: 4358.13 today open: 4321.07 today close: 4320.82 close to close ret: -86 bps	Market went down a lot between 2021-07-07 close and 2021-07-08 open. It then recovered during regular trading hours on 2021-07-08. US 30 year treasury rate dipped below 1.90.
2021-07-19	Mon	previous close: 4,327.16 today open: 4,296.40 today close: 4,258.49 close to close ret: <fill this; should be in bps>	Possibly because 10-year treasury yield went down by 12 bps (was 1.31 on Fri 2021-07-16, 1.19 on Mon 2021-07-19) 30-year treasury yield went down by 12 bps (was 1.93 on Fri 2021-07-16, 1.81 on Fri 2021-07-19) Biggest intra-day 10-year treasury yield drop since 2021-02-26 US China tensions US said China is responsible for the Microsoft Exchange hack
2021-07-20	Tue	previous close: 4,258.49 today open: 4,265.11 today close: 4,323.06 close to close ret: <fill this; should be in bps>

asof | 2022-05-05 12:04 pm

On 2022-09-13

S&P 500 dropped from 4,110.41 (closing price on 2022-09-12) to 3,932.69 (closing price on 2022-09-13)
S&P 500 return = -4.32% (= round(((3932.69 / 4110.41) - 1)*100, 2)
10-year U.S. Treasury yield went up from 3.297% to 3.422%
CPI annual return
- 2022-08, 8.3%
- 2022-07, 8.5%
- 2022-06, 9.1%
core CPI annual return
- 2022-08, 6.3%
- 2022-07, 5.9%
- 2022-06, 5.9%

Ref:-

Observation:

Hypothesis:

On 2023-04-19, Costco announced that they will be increasing the cash dividend from 90 cents to $1.02 per share. The dividend is payable May 19, 2023, to shareholders of record at the close of business on May 5, 2023.
- Ref:- https://investor.costco.com/news/news-details/2023/Costco-Wholesale-Corporation-Announces-an-Increase-in-Its-Quarterly-Cash-Dividend/default.aspx Costco is increasing .

Observation:

Stock	2023-05-19 close (\$)	2023-05-22 close (\$)	2023-05-22 return (bps)
COST	496.52	491.87	-94
VOO	384.57	384.78	5

Is there anything that could explain this?

I checked

What else?

Ref:

From Aug 1st 2023 through Aug 17th 2023, VOO went down ~5% (from \$420 to \$400); US 10 year note went up 25 bps (from 4.05 bps to 4.30 bps).